OTT 이탈 분석 시장 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the OTT churn analytics market size was USD 196.86 million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 518.73 million by 2031, registering a CAGR of 17.24% from 2026 to 2031.

This report is Segmented by Component (Software, and Services), Application (Voluntary Churn Prediction and Prevention, Involuntary Churn and Payment Recovery, Retention Offer and Cancellation-Save Optimization, and Win-Back and Re-Subscription Analytics), End User (Subscription and Hybrid OTT, Sports and Live-Event, and More), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global OTT Churn Analytics Market Trends and Insights

Intensifying OTT Subscription Competition Drives Analytics Investment

U.S. premium SVOD subscription growth fell to 7% in 2025, the first single-digit year in the reported series. Monthly churn ranged from 2-3% for tier-1 operators to 7-30% for smaller niche services. The difference places more pressure on mid-tier services, where retention economics are less resilient. Major global streamers lost USD 6.3 billion to churn in 2025, reinforcing the case for stronger retention systems. Q4 2025 produced 31% of annual gross additions and 57% of net additions for premium SVOD. The OTT churn analytics market therefore benefits as operators focus on retaining subscribers after concentrated acquisition periods.

Advancements in Real-Time AI and Machine Learning Expand Platform Capabilities

AI-based churn prediction allows operators to act before a subscriber completes a cancellation. Evergent reported 94% prediction accuracy up to 2-3 weeks before formal cancellation. This supports targeted offers instead of broad discount campaigns. Cleeng launched cross-platform AI agents in April 2026 that cover acquisition, retention, and win-back activity. The platform used behavioral data from more than 54 million subscribers and 250 million subscription lifecycle events. Research on OTT datasets also reported accuracy of up to 98% from hybrid models that combine gradient boosting, deep learning, and feature-selection methods.

Fragmented Data and Legacy Integration Architecture Creates Structural Barriers

Subscriber data often comes from Apple App Store, Google Play, Roku, telecom billing partners, and proprietary web channels. These sources use different formats, update intervals, and definitions of a subscription lifecycle. Monthly reporting can miss falling viewing frequency, lower completion rates, and unsuccessful payment retries. Mid-tier operators may delay deployment because unifying these signals is costly. Multi-brand operators must also resolve identities across services before they can target an offer properly. The California Attorney General's February 2026 Disney settlement showed that cross-service identity systems require corresponding consumer opt-out controls.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Rising Cost of Subscriber Acquisition and Retention Raises the ROI Bar for Analytics
2. Expansion of Ad-Supported and Hybrid Streaming Tiers Creates New Churn Typologies
3. Privacy, Consent, and Data Residency Constraints Limit Behavioral Signal Depth

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Software accounted for 65.75% of the OTT churn analytics market size in 2025 and is projected to grow at a 17.84% CAGR through 2031. It remains the largest component because operators need a persistent system for scoring, segmentation, and retention actions. Early adopters are adding agent-based functions to existing churn-scoring systems, while later adopters are implementing subscription analytics for the first time. This combination supports continued software demand and reflects a category where adoption and expansion are occurring at the same time.

Services represented the remaining 34.25% of revenue in 2025 and are important for operators without large internal data science teams. Implementation, integration, and managed analytics reduce the practical barrier to adoption. Databricks launched CustomerLake in January 2026 with integrations across Snowflake, Google BigQuery, marketing platforms, and reverse ETL pipelines. Such products can reduce manual configuration while increasing the value of advisory work. Services are likely to shift toward strategic support and model validation rather than disappear as automation expands.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Component
  • Software
  • Services
• By Application
  • Voluntary Churn Prediction and Prevention
  • Involuntary Churn and Payment Recovery
  • Retention Offer and Cancellation-Save Optimization
  • Win-Back and Re-Subscription Analytics
• By End User
  • Subscription and Hybrid OTT
  • Broadcasters/Pay-TV/Telecom OTT
  • Sports and Live-Event
  • Audio and Other Subscription
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Europe
    • United Kingdom
    • Germany
    • France
    • Italy
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Australia
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • Middle East
    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Turkey
    • Rest of Middle East
  • Africa
    • South Africa
    • Egypt
    • Nigeria
    • Rest of Africa

Geography Analysis

North America held 35.40% of the OTT churn analytics market share in 2025. The region has a high concentration of tier-1 SVOD headquarters and a long record of analytics-led subscriber management. U.S. premium SVOD monthly churn stabilized at a weighted average of 4.6% during 2025 after an annualized peak of 44% in Q4 2024. U.S. households spent USD 69 each month on an average of 4 paid streaming video services in 2026. This level of service use increases the value of win-back programs and targeted retention offers.

Asia-Pacific is projected to grow at a 17.91% CAGR from 2026 to 2031. The region had more than 1 billion SVOD subscriptions and 2.76 billion AVOD monthly active users in 2025. Japan's premium VOD sector reached USD 7.2 billion in 2025 and added 4 million subscribers to reach 67.9 million. India's projected scale and lower ARPU increase the need for payment recovery and event-triggered win-back tools. In South Korea, Disney+ monthly active users fell from more than 4 million to 3.12 million before the company accelerated original-content releases in 2026.

Europe remains an important source of demand, and Germany illustrates the region's changing viewing habits. IPTV or streaming services were used by 54% of German households in 2026, compared with 45% in 2025. GDPR requirements add cost but also create demand for privacy-safe first-party analytics. South America, the Middle East, and Africa offer a longer path for growth as platform use and analytics maturity develop. Brazil had 70.3 million streaming subscribers, while OTT represented 90.8% of its video-content market in 2026.

1. Salesforce, Inc.
2. Adobe Inc.
3. Google LLC
4. Microsoft Corporation
5. Amazon Web Services, Inc.
6. IBM Corporation
7. Oracle Corporation
8. Confluent, Inc.
9. Databricks, Inc.
10. Snowflake Inc.
11. Conviva, Inc.
12. Nielsen Holdings plc
13. Comscore, Inc.
14. Antenna Analytics, Inc.
15. Cleeng B.V.
16. Evergent Technologies, Inc.
17. ThinkAnalytics Limited
18. Brightcove Inc.
19. Kaltura, Inc.
20. Amplitude, Inc.
21. Zuora, Inc.
22. Recurly, Inc.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Market
• 4.3 Market Drivers
  • 4.3.1 Intensifying OTT Subscription Competition
  • 4.3.2 Expansion of Ad-Supported and Hybrid Streaming Tiers
  • 4.3.3 Rising Cost of Subscriber Acquisition and Retention
  • 4.3.4 Advancements in Real-Time AI and Machine Learning
  • 4.3.5 Event-Level Viewing and Payment Telemetry
  • 4.3.6 Privacy-Safe First-Party Data Activation
• 4.4 Market Restraints
  • 4.4.1 Fragmented Data and Legacy Integration Architecture
  • 4.4.2 Privacy, Consent, and Data Residency Constraints
  • 4.4.3 Limited Analytics Maturity Among Regional and Mid-Market Platforms
  • 4.4.4 Intervention Fatigue and Retention-Offer Margin Dilution
• 4.5 Industry Value Chain Analysis
• 4.6 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.7 Technological Outlook
• 4.8 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.8.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.8.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.8.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.8.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.8.5 Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

• 5.1 By Component
  • 5.1.1 Software
  • 5.1.2 Services
• 5.2 By Application
  • 5.2.1 Voluntary Churn Prediction and Prevention
  • 5.2.2 Involuntary Churn and Payment Recovery
  • 5.2.3 Retention Offer and Cancellation-Save Optimization
  • 5.2.4 Win-Back and Re-Subscription Analytics
• 5.3 By End User
  • 5.3.1 Subscription and Hybrid OTT
  • 5.3.2 Broadcasters/Pay-TV/Telecom OTT
  • 5.3.3 Sports and Live-Event
  • 5.3.4 Audio and Other Subscription
• 5.4 By Geography
  • 5.4.1 North America
    • 5.4.1.1 United States
    • 5.4.1.2 Canada
    • 5.4.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.4.2 South America
    • 5.4.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.4.2.2 Argentina
    • 5.4.2.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.4.3 Europe
    • 5.4.3.1 United Kingdom
    • 5.4.3.2 Germany
    • 5.4.3.3 France
    • 5.4.3.4 Italy
    • 5.4.3.5 Russia
    • 5.4.3.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.4.4 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.4.4.1 China
    • 5.4.4.2 India
    • 5.4.4.3 Japan
    • 5.4.4.4 South Korea
    • 5.4.4.5 Australia
    • 5.4.4.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.4.5 Middle East
    • 5.4.5.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.4.5.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.4.5.3 Turkey
    • 5.4.5.4 Rest of Middle East
  • 5.4.6 Africa
    • 5.4.6.1 South Africa
    • 5.4.6.2 Egypt
    • 5.4.6.3 Nigeria
    • 5.4.6.4 Rest of Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Positioning Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Salesforce, Inc.
  • 6.4.2 Adobe Inc.
  • 6.4.3 Google LLC
  • 6.4.4 Microsoft Corporation
  • 6.4.5 Amazon Web Services, Inc.
  • 6.4.6 IBM Corporation
  • 6.4.7 Oracle Corporation
  • 6.4.8 Confluent, Inc.
  • 6.4.9 Databricks, Inc.
  • 6.4.10 Snowflake Inc.
  • 6.4.11 Conviva, Inc.
  • 6.4.12 Nielsen Holdings plc
  • 6.4.13 Comscore, Inc.
  • 6.4.14 Antenna Analytics, Inc.
  • 6.4.15 Cleeng B.V.
  • 6.4.16 Evergent Technologies, Inc.
  • 6.4.17 ThinkAnalytics Limited
  • 6.4.18 Brightcove Inc.
  • 6.4.19 Kaltura, Inc.
  • 6.4.20 Amplitude, Inc.
  • 6.4.21 Zuora, Inc.
  • 6.4.22 Recurly, Inc.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

• 7.1 White-Space and Unmet-Need Assessment