유럽의 전자상거래 라스트 마일 배송 시장 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the Europe e-commerce last-mile delivery market was valued at USD 30.93 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 33.57 billion in 2026 and USD 49.65 billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 8.14% between 2026 and 2031.

The Europe e-commerce last-mile delivery market is moving toward networks that combine doorstep services with parcel lockers, pickup points, and local delivery hubs. This report is Segmented by Delivery Type (Standard, Same-Day, Next-Day), by Delivery Model (B2C, B2B, C2C), by City Tier (Tier 1, Tier 2, and More), by Product Type (Foods and Beverages, Consumer Electronics, Other Products), and by Country (United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Nordics, Rest of Europe). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Europe E-Commerce Last-Mile Delivery Market Trends and Insights

E-Commerce Parcel Density Expansion

Parcel density is improving the economics of the Europe e-commerce last-mile delivery market because carriers can serve more addresses on each route. Retailers are also placing greater value on delivery performance because failed or delayed deliveries can affect customer conversion and repeat orders. First-attempt delivery success in Europe rose from 82.1% in the first quarter of 2025 to 86.4% in the second quarter. On-time delivery remained above 98% during the same period. Carriers with dense networks can use these operating gains to improve service reliability without incurring proportional labor costs. The same advantage is encouraging investment in pickup and locker coverage outside the largest cities.

Out-of-Home Pickup and Locker Network Expansion

Out-of-home delivery is becoming a central part of the Europe e-commerce last-mile delivery market because it consolidates deliveries at accessible collection points. Geopost operated more than 150,000 pickup points, including 50,000 lockers, across Europe in 2025, and its out-of-home volumes rose 31%. InPost delivered 1.4 billion parcels in 2025 and added 14,200 automated parcel machines, bringing its European network to 61,196 lockers. GLS expanded its network from 70,000 to 130,000 out-of-home points in 24 months and set a target of 30,000 owned lockers by 2030. DPD Germany and GLS launched the inbox shared network in March 2026, aiming to reach 20,000 shared points by the end of 2027. Shared networks can widen consumer access while lowering the infrastructure burden on each carrier.

Last-Mile Labor Availability and Driver Retention Pressure

Labor availability remains a restraint on the Europe e-commerce last-mile delivery market because final-mile service depends on reliable driver coverage. The IRU reported 502,000 unfilled truck driver positions across Europe in 2025, equal to a 13% shortage rate. It also stated that 660,000 drivers are expected to retire by 2030. Shortages can increase recruitment, training, and overtime costs for delivery operators. They also make it harder for carriers to add service capacity during seasonal peaks. Lockers, route-planning tools, and flexible delivery models can reduce the number of doorstep stops, but they do not eliminate the need for trained personnel.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Same-Day and Next-Day Service Penetration
2. Electrification of Urban Delivery Fleets
3. Urban Access Constraints and Low-Emission Zone Compliance Costs

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Standard delivery held 56% of the Europe e-commerce last-mile delivery market share in 2025. Its position reflects continued consumer attention to delivery charges, even where faster options are available. Standard services give retailers a lower-cost option for routine orders and allow carriers to consolidate routes. They are also increasingly linked to lockers and pickup points rather than doorstep delivery. This change can improve first-attempt delivery performance and reduce missed delivery costs. Next-day delivery sits between standard and same-day services in both price and urgency.

Same-day delivery is forecast to grow at an 11.59% CAGR through 2031, making it the fastest-growing delivery type in the Europe e-commerce last-mile delivery market. It is most viable in large cities, where short travel distances and local stock support frequent dispatches. Retailers use it most often for urgent orders for food, household, fashion, and electronics. The model requires local fulfillment capacity before volume can reach an efficient level. As a result, same-day delivery is likely to remain selective outside dense urban areas. Operators can protect margins by offering it as a paid option while keeping standard delivery broadly available.

B2C accounted for 47.96% of the Europe e-commerce last-mile delivery market size in 2025. Retail e-commerce, grocery fulfillment, and direct-to-consumer brands continue to create the largest parcel flows in this model. Geopost reported 9% B2C volume growth in 2025 across its 5 major European markets. B2C delivery requires a mix of doorstep, locker, and parcel-shop services, as well as return services. Retailers benefit when carriers provide reliable delivery choices at checkout. This keeps consumer delivery the core volume base for national parcel networks.

C2C is forecast to grow at a 14.26% CAGR through 2031. Second-hand platforms and the wider use of peer-to-peer resale channels support the segment. Germany's 2026 KEP study identified C2C as the segment with the greatest longer-term potential. These parcels are often smaller and well-suited to locker or pickup-point delivery. That profile fits the networks carriers are building for B2C delivery. InPost's 2025 acquisitions of Yodel in the United Kingdom and Sending in Spain expanded its doorstep capabilities alongside its locker base. Carriers that handle both outbound and reverse flows can serve resale platforms more effectively.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Delivery Type
  • Standard Delivery
  • Same-Day Delivery
  • Next-Day Delivery
• By Delivery Model
  • Business-to-Consumer (B2C)
  • Business-to-Business (B2B)
  • Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C)
• By City Tier
  • Tier 1
  • Tier 2
  • Tier 3 and Below
• By Product Type
  • Foods and Beverages
  • Personal and Household Care
  • Fashion and Lifestyle (accessories, apparel, footwear)
  • Furniture
  • Consumer Electronics and Household Appliances
  • Other Products
• By Country
  • United Kingdom
  • Germany
  • France
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • Belgium
  • Netherlands
  • NORDICS (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden)
  • Rest of Europe

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. DHL Group
2. GLS Group
3. Amazon Logistics
4. United Parcel Service, Inc.
5. FedEx
6. InPost
7. La Poste Group
8. Correos Group
9. PostNL
10. Poste Italiane
11. Geopost (DPDgroup Parent)
12. Evri
13. PostNord
14. Bnode
15. Bring
16. Swiss Post Ltd.
17. Cainiao
18. Colis Prive

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview and Role of Last-Mile Delivery in E-Commerce Logistics
• 4.2 E-Commerce Spending Trends
• 4.3 Market Drivers
  • 4.3.1 E-Commerce Parcel Density Expansion
  • 4.3.2 Out-of-Home Pickup and Locker Network Expansion
  • 4.3.3 Same-Day and Next-Day Service Penetration
  • 4.3.4 Electrification of Urban Delivery Fleets
  • 4.3.5 Real-Time Route Optimization and Visibility Expectations
  • 4.3.6 Cross-Border Marketplace Fulfillment Complexity
• 4.4 Market Restraints
  • 4.4.1 Last-Mile Labor Availability and Driver Retention Pressure
  • 4.4.2 Urban Access Constraints and Low-Emission Zone Compliance Costs
  • 4.4.3 Rural Density Penalties for Zero-Emission Delivery Economics
  • 4.4.4 Packaging, Returns, and Reverse-Logistics Cost Inflation
• 4.5 Regulatory Framework
• 4.6 Value Chain and Distribution Channel Architecture Analysis
• 4.7 Technology Innovations Outlook
• 4.8 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.8.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.8.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.8.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.8.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.8.5 Rivalry Among Competitors
• 4.9 Evolution of E-Commerce Last-Mile Delivery Requirements
• 4.10 Pricing and Cost Structure Analysis
• 4.11 Consumer Behavior and Delivery Preferences Analysis
• 4.12 Sustainable Delivery Solutions and Green Logistics Initiatives
• 4.13 Impact of Geo-Political Events on Supply Chain Shifts

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value, 2026-2031)

• 5.1 By Delivery Type
  • 5.1.1 Standard Delivery
  • 5.1.2 Same-Day Delivery
  • 5.1.3 Next-Day Delivery
• 5.2 By Delivery Model
  • 5.2.1 Business-to-Consumer (B2C)
  • 5.2.2 Business-to-Business (B2B)
  • 5.2.3 Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C)
• 5.3 By City Tier
  • 5.3.1 Tier 1
  • 5.3.2 Tier 2
  • 5.3.3 Tier 3 and Below
• 5.4 By Product Type
  • 5.4.1 Foods and Beverages
  • 5.4.2 Personal and Household Care
  • 5.4.3 Fashion and Lifestyle (accessories, apparel, footwear)
  • 5.4.4 Furniture
  • 5.4.5 Consumer Electronics and Household Appliances
  • 5.4.6 Other Products
• 5.5 By Country
  • 5.5.1 United Kingdom
  • 5.5.2 Germany
  • 5.5.3 France
  • 5.5.4 Spain
  • 5.5.5 Italy
  • 5.5.6 Belgium
  • 5.5.7 Netherlands
  • 5.5.8 NORDICS (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden)
  • 5.5.9 Rest of Europe

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Key Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 DHL Group
  • 6.4.2 GLS Group
  • 6.4.3 Amazon Logistics
  • 6.4.4 United Parcel Service, Inc.
  • 6.4.5 FedEx
  • 6.4.6 InPost
  • 6.4.7 La Poste Group
  • 6.4.8 Correos Group
  • 6.4.9 PostNL
  • 6.4.10 Poste Italiane
  • 6.4.11 Geopost (DPDgroup Parent)
  • 6.4.12 Evri
  • 6.4.13 PostNord
  • 6.4.14 Bnode
  • 6.4.15 Bring
  • 6.4.16 Swiss Post Ltd.
  • 6.4.17 Cainiao
  • 6.4.18 Colis Prive

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space and Unmet-Need Assessment