미국의 폐기물 유래 재생 가스 시장 : 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the united states renewable gas from waste market size is projected to be USD 4.82 billion in 2025, USD 5.29 billion in 2026, and reach USD 8.98 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 11.16% from 2026 to 2031.

This report is Segmented by Feedstock (Municipal Solid Waste, Animal Manure, Food Waste, and More), by Technology (Gasification, Pyrolysis, and More), by Gas Type (Biogas, Syngas, and More), by Application (Electricity Generation, Grid Injection, and More), and by Component (Gas Collection, Digesters & Fermentation, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

United States Renewable Gas From Waste Market Trends and Insights

IRA Tax Credits Catalyzing Large-Scale Capital Deployment

The Inflation Reduction Act's Section 45Z clean fuel production credit has become the strongest project finance catalyst in the United States renewable gas from waste market. Unlike older volume-based structures, Section 45Z ties credit value to lifecycle carbon intensity, giving dairy manure and food waste pathways a clear economic edge over higher-carbon feedstocks. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act extended the credit through 2029, materially improving the bankability of projects that require 5 to 7 years from development to operation. The February 2026 proposed regulations from the United States Treasury and IRS also confirmed that biogas upgraded to pipeline-quality biomethane qualifies for the credit, removing one of the biggest financing uncertainties in the market. Transferability has widened the buyer pool for these credits, and this effect was evident in 2025, when 40 new farm-based systems and 20 new landfill gas systems came online, totaling a combined capital of USD 1.75 billion.

Federal RFS RIN Credits Boosting RNG Project Economics

The Renewable Fuel Standard remains the primary revenue stream for the United States renewable gas from waste market, and the March 2026 final rule set total applicable cellulosic biofuel volumes at 1.36 billion RINs for 2026 and 1.43 billion RINs for 2027. The same rule removed eRINs from the program, narrowing the compliance pathway and concentrating demand on D3 cellulosic RINs generated largely by RNG projects. The Biogas Regulatory Reform Rule also reduced compliance friction by decoupling RNG RIN generation from transportation fuel demonstration requirements under 40 CFR Part 80 Subpart E. Market demand has kept pace with that framework because 94% of all on-road natural gas vehicle fuel consumed in the United States in 2025 was RNG, equal to 755 million GGE out of 806 million GGE total, while RNG motor fuel use rose 13% year over year. This combination of regulatory clarity and verified fuel consumption continues to support project returns at levels that remain attractive to institutional capital in the United States renewable gas from waste market.

RFS Volatility and Declining LCFS Credit Prices Hurting Revenue Visibility

Many projects in the United States renewable gas from waste market still rely on a stacked revenue model built around federal RINs and California LCFS credits, which makes revenue forecasts sensitive to policy and pricing changes. The April 2026 final rule partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume from 1.38 billion RINs to 1.21 billion RINs because production fell short, which showed that the EPA is willing to reduce obligations when supply does not meet expectations. On the LCFS side, the second half of 2025 produced two net-deficit quarters, yet the annual average credit price remained at USD 57 per metric ton, below the 2024 average of USD 60. That disconnect reflects the overhang from a 39.69 million metric ton credit bank at the end of 2025, leaving a meaningful revenue gap for projects underwritten at LCFS values above USD 100 per metric ton. Revenue visibility is further affected by the provisional emissions rate process under Section 45Z, which slows appraisal for co-digestion projects that still need a bankable carbon intensity score.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. California LCFS Rewarding Negative Carbon Intensity Feedstocks
2. Corporate Fleet Decarbonization Driving Long-Term RNG Offtake
3. Federal Policy Uncertainty Stalling Final Investment Decisions

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Municipal Solid Waste accounted for 39.2% of the United States renewable gas from waste market share in 2025, reflecting the long-established installed base of landfill gas capture systems across the country. The American Biogas Council counted 599 landfill gas facilities producing 559 billion cubic feet per year, and landfill biogas investment exceeded USD 1 billion annually in both 2023 and 2024. Food waste is the fastest-growing feedstock, with a forecast CAGR of 13.8% from 2026 to 2031, supported by a near tripling of investment in food waste-only digestion facilities between 2024 and 2025 to USD 325 million and an 18% rise in biogas capture to 28 billion cubic feet in 2025. This pattern shows that the United States renewable gas from waste market is still anchored by mature landfill assets even as organics diversion is shifting the growth center toward more distributed feedstocks.

Animal manure, especially dairy and swine waste, has grown rapidly because lower carbon-intensity scores translate into greater tax credit value under Section 45Z. Sewage sludge remains a large and widely available feedstock, with more than 1,240 water resource recovery facilities operating anaerobic digesters, although municipal procurement cycles and aging infrastructure slow new-build activity. Industrial organic waste is becoming more relevant in food processing and beverage operations, where feedstock supply is predictable. At the same time, more than 470 active landfills still flare gas that could, in theory, be captured and upgraded, leaving a measurable project pipeline for the United States renewable gas from waste market.

Anaerobic digestion held 41.8% share in 2025 and remains the lead technology because it is proven across manure, food waste, wastewater sludge, and industrial organics. That lead is tied to a major project design shift, as farm-based anaerobic digestion RNG facilities increased from 90 in 2020 to 414 in 2025, representing 360% growth in five years. Biogas upgrading systems are the fastest-growing technology segment, with a forecast CAGR of 12.3% from 2026 to 2031. The acceleration in upgrading is consistent with the fact that 95% of new United States biogas projects since 2024 have been designed for RNG production rather than onsite power generation.

Landfill gas recovery still accounts for a large share of the technology mix because federal emissions rules support capture at larger landfill sites, and Illinois added the most new landfill gas capacity from 2023 to 2025. Gasification and pyrolysis remain smaller but developing options in the United States renewable gas from waste market, especially for municipal solid waste and agricultural residues, where conventional digestion can deliver lower biomethane yield. These thermochemical routes are attracting attention for electricity generation as policy support broadens and developers seek better ways to monetize harder-to-digest feedstocks. Quality compliance also matters at the point of upgrading and injection, so ASTM D8452 and related gas quality standards continue to shape technology selection at commercial sites.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Feedstock
  • Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
  • Agricultural Residues
  • Animal Manure
  • Industrial Organic Waste
  • Sewage Sludge
  • Food Waste
  • Others
• By Technology
  • Anaerobic Digestion
  • Landfill Gas Recovery
  • Gasification
  • Pyrolysis
  • Biogas Upgrading Systems
  • Others
• By Gas Type
  • Biogas
  • Biomethane / Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)
  • Syngas
• By Application
  • Electricity Generation
  • Combined Heat & Power (CHP)
  • Grid Injection
  • Transportation Fuel
  • Industrial Heating
  • Residential & Commercial Heating
  • Others
• By Component
  • Gas Collection Systems
  • Digesters & Fermentation Systems
  • Gas Processing & Upgrading Units
  • Compressors & Storage Systems
  • Power Generation Equipment
  • Monitoring & Control Systems
  • Others

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Archaea Energy
2. Clean Energy Fuels Corp.
3. Waste Management Inc.
4. Republic Services
5. OPAL Fuels
6. Ameresco
7. Vanguard Renewables
8. Aemetis Biogas
9. Montauk Renewables
10. Brightmark
11. Chesapeake Utilities Corporation
12. Fortistar
13. Amp Americas
14. Rumpke Consolidated Companies
15. GFL Environmental
16. Reworld
17. Kinder Morgan
18. TotalEnergies
19. DTE Vantage
20. Morrow Renewables

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 IRA Tax Credits Catalyzing Large-Scale Capital Deployment
  • 4.2.2 Federal RFS RIN Credits Boosting RNG Project Economics
  • 4.2.3 California LCFS Rewarding Negative Carbon Intensity Feedstocks
  • 4.2.4 Corporate Fleet Decarbonization Driving Long-Term RNG Offtake
  • 4.2.5 State Organics Diversion Mandates Expanding Feedstock Availability
  • 4.2.6 AI-Driven Electricity Demand Strengthening Dispatchable Biogas Value
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 RFS Volatility and Declining LCFS Credit Prices Hurting Revenue Visibility
  • 4.3.2 Federal Policy Uncertainty Stalling Final Investment Decisions
  • 4.3.3 Pipeline Interconnection Backlogs Delaying RNG Project Commissioning
  • 4.3.4 Geographic Feedstock Dispersal Limiting Viable Economic-Scale Sites
• 4.4 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Industry Rivalry
• 4.8 Digital Feedstock Management and Process Optimization Improving Renewable Gas Plant Efficiency
• 4.9 Organic Waste Diversion and Segregation Policies Supporting Feedstock Supply Growth
• 4.10 Impact of Geopolitical Events on the Market

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Feedstock
  • 5.1.1 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
  • 5.1.2 Agricultural Residues
  • 5.1.3 Animal Manure
  • 5.1.4 Industrial Organic Waste
  • 5.1.5 Sewage Sludge
  • 5.1.6 Food Waste
  • 5.1.7 Others
• 5.2 By Technology
  • 5.2.1 Anaerobic Digestion
  • 5.2.2 Landfill Gas Recovery
  • 5.2.3 Gasification
  • 5.2.4 Pyrolysis
  • 5.2.5 Biogas Upgrading Systems
  • 5.2.6 Others
• 5.3 By Gas Type
  • 5.3.1 Biogas
  • 5.3.2 Biomethane / Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)
  • 5.3.3 Syngas
• 5.4 By Application
  • 5.4.1 Electricity Generation
  • 5.4.2 Combined Heat & Power (CHP)
  • 5.4.3 Grid Injection
  • 5.4.4 Transportation Fuel
  • 5.4.5 Industrial Heating
  • 5.4.6 Residential & Commercial Heating
  • 5.4.7 Others
• 5.5 By Component
  • 5.5.1 Gas Collection Systems
  • 5.5.2 Digesters & Fermentation Systems
  • 5.5.3 Gas Processing & Upgrading Units
  • 5.5.4 Compressors & Storage Systems
  • 5.5.5 Power Generation Equipment
  • 5.5.6 Monitoring & Control Systems
  • 5.5.7 Others

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (Includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Archaea Energy
  • 6.4.2 Clean Energy Fuels Corp.
  • 6.4.3 Waste Management Inc.
  • 6.4.4 Republic Services
  • 6.4.5 OPAL Fuels
  • 6.4.6 Ameresco
  • 6.4.7 Vanguard Renewables
  • 6.4.8 Aemetis Biogas
  • 6.4.9 Montauk Renewables
  • 6.4.10 Brightmark
  • 6.4.11 Chesapeake Utilities Corporation
  • 6.4.12 Fortistar
  • 6.4.13 Amp Americas
  • 6.4.14 Rumpke Consolidated Companies
  • 6.4.15 GFL Environmental
  • 6.4.16 Reworld
  • 6.4.17 Kinder Morgan
  • 6.4.18 TotalEnergies
  • 6.4.19 DTE Vantage
  • 6.4.20 Morrow Renewables

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment