동아프리카 자동차용 엔진오일 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the east Africa automotive engine oil market size is projected to be 122.35 million liters in 2025, 126.46 million liters in 2026, and reach 147.51 million liters by 2031, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.13% from 2026 to 2031.

This report is Segmented by Type (Passenger Car Motor Oil (PCMO), and More), Base Stock Type (Mineral, Semi-Synthetic, Fully Synthetic, and Bio-Based), Grade (0W-XX, 5W-XX, 10W-XX, 15W-XX, Monogrades, and Other Grades), and Geography (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, and Democratic Republic of Congo). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Volume (Liters).

East Africa Automotive Engine Oil Market Trends and Insights

Rising Average Vehicle Age

Kenya's eight-year import cap, effective from January 2026, allows the import of vehicles manufactured in 2018. This results in fleets with service lives ranging from 6 to 15 years, which consume higher volumes of 15W-40 and 20W-50 lubricants due to increased wear, leaks, and oil burn. In the first eight months of 2024, Tanzania imported 46,944 used cars, while Uganda imported 19,440, with most vehicles showing odometer readings exceeding 100,000 km. Kenya's DKS 1515:2025 annual inspection regulations now include checks on engine oil levels, pressure, and leak integrity, prompting more frequent oil drain cycles for commercial fleets. Although logistics operators are experimenting with oil condition monitoring, adoption remains below 5%, leaving significant potential for premium-grade lubricant sales. As engines age, recommended drain intervals often shorten, despite consumer efforts to extend them, contributing to an overall increase in lubricant consumption.

Growing Vehicle Parc and Used-Car Imports

In December 2025, Kenya registered 31,595 new vehicles, while the national vehicle parc surpassed 3 million units, including over 1.4 million motorcycles, significantly increasing lubricant demand. The influx of vehicles from Japan and the United Arab Emirates has introduced turbocharged gasoline and diesel powertrains, which require low-sulfated ash, phosphorus, and sulfur (SAPS), low-viscosity oils as specified in original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manuals. However, these oils are rarely available in rural areas, leading mechanics to rely on mineral 15W-40 oils. Motorcycle registrations surged by 128.2% year-on-year to 163,112 units in 2025, with motorcycles consuming oil at three to five times the per-kilometer rate of passenger cars. Pack-size preferences are shifting, with 1-liter and 500-mL bottles dominating roadside sales as boda-boda riders opt for smaller, more affordable quantities. The East Africa automotive engine oil market benefits from both the growth in the vehicle parc and the higher frequency of oil top-ups across different vehicle categories.

Proliferation of Counterfeit or Adulterated Oils

Kenya's Anti-Counterfeit Authority seized KES 65 million (USD 0.50 million) worth of illicit lubricants over five years, while Tanzania's Fair Competition Commission confiscated 5,000 gallons in Kariakoo in February 2026. These incidents indicate a persistent gray market that affects branded equity. Counterfeiters refill branded cans with downgraded mineral or recycled oil and distribute them through informal kiosks in border towns and peri-urban areas. Low penalties and limited forensic laboratories hinder effective prosecution, allowing offenders to resume operations quickly. Marketers are testing QR-code or Short Message Service (SMS) validation seals, but informal retailers resist due to compliance costs. Without stricter legal deterrents, counterfeit products will continue to reduce legitimate market volumes and impact the East Africa automotive engine oil industry.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Boom in Logistics, Mining, and Infrastructure Projects
2. Rapid Shift Toward Synthetic and Semi-Synthetic Oils
3. High Price Sensitivity and Import Reliance

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Passenger car motor oil is projected to account for 53.81% of the East Africa automotive engine oil market size in 2025, reflecting the prevalence of sedans and SUVs in urban fleets. Motorcycle engine oil is expected to be the fastest-growing segment, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.34% through 2031, driven by Kenya's 163,112 new motorcycle registrations in 2025 and the expansion of two-wheeler taxi networks in Uganda. Demand for heavy-duty motor oil is supported by freight growth along the Northern Corridor and ongoing railway projects that require continuous operation of excavators and bulldozers.

Roadside mechanics are increasingly opting for 1-liter and 500 mL packs for two-wheelers, as riders prefer smaller, more affordable packaging. This shift in packaging has improved per-liter margins by 20-30%. Fleet modernization in the trucking sector, such as DHL's adoption of Euro 5 biodiesel vehicles, is driving higher viscosity and performance requirements, steering the East Africa automotive engine oil market toward synthetic blends. Meanwhile, passenger car drain intervals are lengthening as owners reduce maintenance expenses, partially offsetting growth driven by the expansion of the vehicle population.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Product Type
  • Passenger Car Motor Oil (PCMO)
  • Heavy-Duty Motor Oil (HDMO)
  • Motorcycle Engine Oil (MCO)
• By Base Stock Type
  • Mineral
  • Semi-Synthetic
  • Fully Synthetic
  • Bio-Based
• By Grade
  • 0W-XX
  • 5W-XX
  • 10W-XX
  • 15W-XX
  • Monogrades
  • Other Grades
• By Geography
  • Kenya
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Ethiopia
  • Rwanda
  • Burundi
  • Democratic Republic of Congo

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. AMSOIL Inc.
2. BP p.l.c. (Castrol)
3. Chevron Corporation
4. China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC)
5. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec)
6. Engen Petroleum (PTY) LTD
7. Exxon Mobil Corporation
8. FUCHS
9. Gazprom
10. Hindustan Petroleum Corp.
11. Idemitsu Kosan Co.
12. Lake Group Ltd.
13. LUKOIL
14. Motul SA
15. OLA Energy
16. Oryx Energies
17. Petrobras
18. PETRONAS Lubricants International
19. Phillips 66 Company
20. PT Pertamina Lubricants
21. Puma Energy
22. Rubis Energy Kenya (KenolKobil)
23. Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
24. Shell plc
25. SK Lubricants Co. Ltd.
26. TotalEnergies
27. Veedol Corporation Limited

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Rising average vehicle age
  • 4.2.2 Growing vehicle parc & used-car imports
  • 4.2.3 Boom in logistics, mining & infrastructure projects
  • 4.2.4 Rapid shift toward synthetic & semi-synthetic oils
  • 4.2.5 EAC duty-remission scheme catalyzing local blending
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Proliferation of counterfeit/adulterated oils
  • 4.3.2 High price sensitivity & import reliance
  • 4.3.3 Forex shortages causing lubricant stock-outs
• 4.4 Value Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.5.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.5.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.5.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.5.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.5.5 Degree of Competition

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Volume)

• 5.1 By Product Type
  • 5.1.1 Passenger Car Motor Oil (PCMO)
  • 5.1.2 Heavy-Duty Motor Oil (HDMO)
  • 5.1.3 Motorcycle Engine Oil (MCO)
• 5.2 By Base Stock Type
  • 5.2.1 Mineral
  • 5.2.2 Semi-Synthetic
  • 5.2.3 Fully Synthetic
  • 5.2.4 Bio-Based
• 5.3 By Grade
  • 5.3.1 0W-XX
  • 5.3.2 5W-XX
  • 5.3.3 10W-XX
  • 5.3.4 15W-XX
  • 5.3.5 Monogrades
  • 5.3.6 Other Grades
• 5.4 By Geography
  • 5.4.1 Kenya
  • 5.4.2 Tanzania
  • 5.4.3 Uganda
  • 5.4.4 Ethiopia
  • 5.4.5 Rwanda
  • 5.4.6 Burundi
  • 5.4.7 Democratic Republic of Congo

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share(%)/Ranking Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 AMSOIL Inc.
  • 6.4.2 BP p.l.c. (Castrol)
  • 6.4.3 Chevron Corporation
  • 6.4.4 China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC)
  • 6.4.5 China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec)
  • 6.4.6 Engen Petroleum (PTY) LTD
  • 6.4.7 Exxon Mobil Corporation
  • 6.4.8 FUCHS
  • 6.4.9 Gazprom
  • 6.4.10 Hindustan Petroleum Corp.
  • 6.4.11 Idemitsu Kosan Co.
  • 6.4.12 Lake Group Ltd.
  • 6.4.13 LUKOIL
  • 6.4.14 Motul SA
  • 6.4.15 OLA Energy
  • 6.4.16 Oryx Energies
  • 6.4.17 Petrobras
  • 6.4.18 PETRONAS Lubricants International
  • 6.4.19 Phillips 66 Company
  • 6.4.20 PT Pertamina Lubricants
  • 6.4.21 Puma Energy
  • 6.4.22 Rubis Energy Kenya (KenolKobil)
  • 6.4.23 Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
  • 6.4.24 Shell plc
  • 6.4.25 SK Lubricants Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.26 TotalEnergies
  • 6.4.27 Veedol Corporation Limited

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment
• 7.2 Expansion of Aftermarket & Distribution Channels